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Second New Poll Says Marriage Amendment Could Fail

Issue comes before voters in November.

 

A new set of survey results released Wednesday morning suggests support for a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage rests on a knife's edge. 

The poll, by Public Policy Polling (PPP), said 48 percent of Minnesotans support the amendment and 47 percent oppose it, with less than sixty days to go until the November election.

State law already bans same-sex marriage.

"In January we found 48/44 support for the ban, while in June we found 49/43 opposition," said a statement from the pollsters, published on PPP's website. "It looks like a toss up."

Opinions broke down by age group thus:

Women (52/41), Democrats (78/16), and voters under 45 (50/45) all oppose the ban. Men (55/41), Republicans (80/17), independents (51/42), and seniors (53/40) all support it in greater numbers though.

For their poll, PPP surveyed 824 likely Minnesota voters, on Sept. 10 and 11. The poll's margin of error was given as plus or minus 3.4 percent.

A second poll, released Tuesday by KSTP and SurveyUSA, said that 50 percent of Minnesotans support the amendment and 43 percent oppose it, with eight percent remaining undecided.

Related Topics: Minnesota for Marriage, Minnesotans United for all Families, election 2012, minnesota marriage amendment, and same-sex marriage

Al Anderson

2:47 pm on Wednesday, September 12, 2012

For what its worth ...PPP is a liberally based polling organization. Zero credibility.

I'm not taking sides on the amendment...only that this poll is worthless

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Luke

9:59 am on Friday, September 14, 2012

Actually, PPP has a high REI index rating, with its polls being very close to the statistical average. They're generally within 1% of the actual and their liberal bias is within the range of error. Nate Silver does an excellent job of explaining how polls are rated, so you should look it up. PPP is probably the most accurate poll we'll get until very close to the election and even then, there aren't many better polls. PPP is better ranked than Gallup and far more accurate than Survey USA.

Of course, polls could be better. Pollsters would love to have a sample size of hundreds of thousands and give weight perfectly, but that isn't possible. If you think the poll is worthless, pick the phone next time and help us be more accurate.

Bob Walz

2:55 pm on Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Do no harm is the golden rule. The marriage amendment does not change the law that limits marriage to one man and one woman. However, it does harm to the minority that is impacted by the amendment; it ends the conversation and the possibility that public attitudes might change, as they did about interfaith marriages. Also, it is an issue of religious freedom. This should not be imposed on religions that support gay marriage, e.g. Jews, ELCA Lutherans, Unitarians, United Church of Christ, Presbyterians, and liberal Catholics. Even if the law were changed, no church would have to marry a gay person, although I feel that all religions should bless a loving relationship that wants to be married regardless of race or gender orientation. Finally, it is also an issue of "less government." Government has no place dictating who a person can love or marry. We're not a dictatorship. I urge everyone to talk with their neighbors and friends about this amendment. Ask them if they support gay marriage to vote NO and if they like things the way they are to leave this item blank, in other words, not to do harm, to follow the golden rule.

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Matt

9:54 am on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Bob, how would your church and, in particular, Bishop Nienstedt, respond to your post?

Here's how: http://www.mncc.org/advocacy-areas/marriage-and-family/marriage-amendment/

As a lay leader in your church, how do you live at odds with the accepted belief structures and tenets of the church? And there is more than just "do unto others" in that mix of rules and dogma.

At some point don't you say "I am better fitted to this church (Unitarian, Episcopal, etc) over here."

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Mother

11:56 am on Thursday, September 13, 2012

I believe the One Man, One Woman Marriage Amendment is to keep other amendments popping up in the future that change the meaning of marriage between two partners. An example would be polygamy. I myself do not want to see something like this be brought down on our children. I know that I would not be happy sharing my husband with another woman because I want to be his number one and do not want families divided, etc. Once the door is open-we may not be able to close it. If you vote YES, this will prevent new bills from opening doors to new issued that most have not thought of yet, but will.
It does not affect two member partnerships in any form, but that it how people are making it out to be due to misunderstanding.
Government does not tell us who to love but putting some restrictions on marriage is going to keep a sixteen year old daughter from marrying a person who does not have her best intentions at heart because she is not mature enough to see it.

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Emily B

12:07 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

And THAT Matt is why young people are quitting church all together. Because, like Luther, they are basically being excommunicated for holding views in opposition to church "tenets." I guess if the church doesn't care about cutting off its nose to spite it's face, then fine, but just allowing differing opinions in a church doesn't mean the church has to change its rules or love for members. In fact, Jesus loved a heck of a lot of people the Pharisees threw away.

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Debbie

12:53 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Wah wah wah, we're being mean to the gays, cry cry cry. I will be voting for the amendment and so will most Minnesotans. I moved here from Massachusetts and saw the damage the radical gay activists did to my state, and will not let it happen again here. Sorry!

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Bauer

1:02 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Debbie: Pssst....your intelligence is showing.

Did you move from MA to MN so you could live somewhere more conservative? If so....fail. You might want to try somewhere further south. Alabama might be the place for you.

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DonaldDoo

11:32 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Who relevant to this conversation has minority status?

Keira McMillen

3:17 pm on Wednesday, September 12, 2012

I am an ordained minister (via the internet -but still legal with the State of Minnesota) and I would have no problem performing a marriage between same sex partners. Don't like it, don't do it! I just don't get why this is such a issue with the religious right. How on earth is this going to affect anyone and their marriage? Sanctity of marriage has been lost on most of humanity for years. Besides think of all the business/money the extra weddings would generate. Two men who are already on top of the pay scale in most industries have a lot of disposable income and expensive tastes.

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Debbie

12:57 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

You are not even a real minister, which is obvious by your trashing of anything moral. We should destroy marriage just for the money? Are you joking? No wonder our society is falling apart, we have people like you running around pretending to be ministers who will marry anything. Will you let me marry 3 men as well? Why not? It doesn't affect anyone else's marriage, right? How about my pets? Doesn't affect anyone else!

Your comment is laughable and frankly, quite terrifying. Good thing you aren't an actual church leader with real power.

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Emily B

1:05 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Are YOU joking Debbie? The WHOLE POINT of marriage for hundreds of years was SOLELY about money!! Marriage was a way of passing on wealth and securing goods.

Michelle

4:27 pm on Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Nobody is forcing churches to perform same sex marriages, it would just be civil marriages, performed in a courthouse, am I not correct? Both my husband and I are Catholics but we were married at the courthouse and so our marriage is not recognized by the catholic church, so why is everybody bringing God into this if the church doesn't even recognize the civil union as being married in the eyes of God? I have been told by my parents that I am not married in the eyes of God, so if I'm not, same sex marriages would also not be. I wish people would quit using God in their arguments against this amendment. I'm not posting to start an argument with anyone I'm just confused as to why God is being used in the argument for marriages that will not be performed in a church if the church does not want to perform them! The way I understand it is, the state will not be forcing churches to perform same sex marriages. Also not only am I not married in the eyes of God but I am living in sin in by not being married in the church, correct? Why is that okay but two ppl of the same sex getting married at the courthouse is not? We're all sinners, lol! It is not for us to judge how other's live their lives, only for God and we will all have to answer to Him eventually! I must be a bad Catholic huh? I don't know, what other ppl do in their personal lives is their business and it's between them and God. Who am I to say who can and cannot be together. MARRIAGE FOR ALL!

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Laura

5:52 pm on Wednesday, September 12, 2012

I like you, Michelle!! You make a lot of sense!!

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Troy

7:09 pm on Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Don't you think it's kinda silly to put this ban into place knowing the SCOTUS is only going to over-turn all of them...sooner rather than later? It's makes us looks stupid, like we're living in the Land of Bachmann...oh wait....

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Brad

9:34 pm on Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Good point Troy! Too bad this money wasn't put towards a cause Jesus harped on a lot: Feeding the poor.

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Sarah Laughner

7:46 am on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Who cares who marries who. We all will answer to Jesus when he returns, and he will. It is not for us to judge, but to be judged.

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Matt

7:57 am on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Anyone have a bible and some serpents? We need props.

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Joshua

8:29 am on Thursday, September 13, 2012

It's legalized discrimination, plain and simple. If you don't agree with same sex marriage, then lobby your congregation and not the state.

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Debbie

12:59 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Well sorry but you will just have to deal with it. Every law discriminates in some way, sir. Most Americans believe marriage should be between one man and one woman and that's the way it is. It isn't going to change. Move on to another issue.

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Emily B

1:10 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Debbie, you can say that a slight majority of Americans believe this, but please stop saying "most" because clearly 43-48% is NOT most. It may end up being a small majority, sure, but absolutely not most.

Also, "it isn't going to change." Good luck on that. I look forward to the day when you are on the opposite side of "most" because it sure will change.

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Joshua

1:39 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Deal with it? If the law passes, then I will. If it fails, will *you* deal with it? Probably not.

The perception of same sex marriage is probably going change over time, just as every other discriminatory, popular belief has in our democratic history.

I'm sorry, but the state of Minnesota will most likely not be destroyed by fire and brimstone if the ammendment fails.

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Orono

12:50 pm on Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Emily, are you having a hard time understanding "most"???
If 48% favor it, 43% dont favor it and 9% have no opinion, MOST favor it.

In your desire to spew at the "haters" you confused MOST with Majority

Angela Norby

10:19 am on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Do NOT leave the ballot blank!!! VOTE!! If you leave it BLANK it automatically votes NO.
YES means leave it clearly as is....Blank or No is for the changing of the amendment.
Vote!
Do NOT leave it blank.

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Emily B

10:56 am on Thursday, September 13, 2012

This is misleading Angela. Leaving it blank is a NO vote, true. However, when you say "blank or no is for changing the amendment" that makes no sense. If people vote against this amendment or opt out and leave it blank, and the amendment is defeated, that means the law STILL stays as is. NOTHING changes.
A YES vote CHANGES things, as it more permanently (though as one person pointed out above, never indefinitely) makes same-sex marriage MORE illegal by inappropriately ingraining it in our Constitution.

It blows my mind that independents support this measure. Live and let live. Please tell me the Libertarians are against it... I know the Constitutionalists are (or at least the guy at the fair said they are).

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Orono

12:54 pm on Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Yes, Libertarians are opposed to change HOWEVER, we are more opposed to activist judges changing laws to suit their agenda. The amendment is mostly to prevent liberal judges from changing laws to better suit their perception of how the world should be. Even after voting gay marriage down in California, judges are still changing laws however they desire. Libertarians dont care either way if there is gay marriage or not, but they are 100% judges making it up as the decide to go along.

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Emily B

2:07 pm on Tuesday, September 18, 2012

So what if legislators want to change the law based on the changing needs and wants of their constituents? Judges don't even need to get involved.

And by the way, there are activist judges on both sides. How about the conservative judges who want to use their decisions to change abortion laws? How is that any different?

Advocates of the amendment, in my understanding, don't want ANYONE to change the law in the future, so they want their version of "right/wrong" embedded in the Constitution.

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Orono

3:24 pm on Tuesday, September 18, 2012

There are definitely conservative activists but not nearly as many. Except, I am unfamiliar with any state that has banned abortion all together.

The real answer is with the government coming up with a legal "civil union". Something that allows 2 people to legally unite and become legally responsible for each other. I have no idea how this would work but if you leave the marriage out of it all together and allow 2 people to unite, it could save a lot of problems. Even brothers or sisters could unite. Then all the legal responsibilities and tax issues could be resolved. Of course the gays would lose the "marriage" word but they can still be legally brought together. If the gays are fighting only for the "marriage" word, then that is a different arugment. To me, if a gay NEEDS to have the marriage word in his civil uniting with a loved one, then they are just looking to argue and are not truly looking for a solution. I would compare that argument to a boy demanding he get to play girls hockey. Or a girl demanding she get to join the boyscouts.

As always, it is just my opinion.

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Emily B

5:24 pm on Tuesday, September 18, 2012

So if the government was ONLY involved with civil unions, then does that mean all legally joined people (straight included) would just have a civil union? And religious institutions (or other non-gov't groups) would be responsible for "marriages"? If that is what you argue for, then we are on the same page. If gov’t is going to provide benefits through the vehicle of marriage and not all couples can get those, that is not acceptable. However, if a civil union is what imparted those benefits and marriage was left to the private/personal/religious realm, fine by me. Right now, a civil union doesn’t provide all the benefits, so we have a “separate but unequal” situation.

Problem is, seems to me that amendment supporters only want to "protect" the word "marriage" which they think is some sacred thing they must fight to the death for, nevermind that marriage was originally created primarily as a way of transferring wealth, long before Christians ever came along. Forget that many care little about so many other things dealing with creating healthy marriages and families. They just want to protect a WORD. Seems like they should be going to the Patents and Trademarks folks instead of the Constitution.

As for abortion, you're right, no state has banned it, because of Roe v Wade, but PLENTY of politicians push for Supreme Court Judges who would vote to overturn Roe v Wade, the law of the land for several decades now, so they can get their way at a state or lower court level.

STW

11:10 am on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Keep your Religion out of my politics, and your politics out of my religion. We don't need religious beliefs in the Constitution.

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Jennifer

11:13 am on Thursday, September 13, 2012

All people should be able to get a "civil" marriage(you know a good ol' JP), and be able to get the same equal benefits (state AND federal). If you want to have a "religious" marriage then find a church that allows you to have one and get. Let gay/lesbian couples have the equal right to also find a church that will grant them a ceremony. The churches that DO NOT ALLOW marriage ceremonies to gay/lesbian couples now, will never have too. Do people understand that yet. They just want equal benefits from the state, and federal govt. Such as: medical, dental, vision, taxes, realestate, hospitalization issues, adoption, exhemption of inheritance tax, social security, 401K benefits. The Federal Govt does NOT recognize marriage for gay/lesbian couples at all, so their family members are NOT covered. Thousands of families are left out. Many states and the fed. govt do NOT recognize domestic partnerships, or civil unions. So traveling through different states while vacationing, will constantly change the nature of your relationship depending on which state you are in. (ie: your adopted child may be legal in one state and not recognized at all in another) It really is about fairness, and families. Do you want to make some families second class forever, or do you want to give them a chance in the future generations to come? How will Minnesota be seen in the years to come? Please vote "NO"

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Debbie

1:01 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Jennifer, all people CAN get married. They just have to follow the guidelines for marriage that our society has established long ago. Right now marriage has one definition...its between a male and female. If you want to swing open the door and make marriage mean nothing by allowing any combination of sexual partners to marry, then that just destroys marriage and leaves it with no meaning or purpose anymore.

This has nothing to do with "fairness." The law is already fair. What is has to do with is a small segment of the population trying to trash our values and most important social institutions, but the voters won't let it happen.

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STW

2:05 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Debbie, keep your definition, that is fine. But let the government recognize civil unions for all, and then get out of the business of defining words. That way you can define marriage any way you want. Separate Church and State. Today you might like the way government helps your cause, tomorrow you may not.

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Susan

2:12 pm on Friday, September 14, 2012

Debbie wrote: "What is has to do with is a small segment of the population trying to trash our values and most important social institutions."

Well, since over forty percent of the population appears to be against the amendment, I don't believe it is a "small segment of the population". How in the world will keeping our Constitution the way it is "trash our values and most important social institutions"?

Let's just say gay marriage does eventually become legal, I again ask you, how would this trash "your" values? How would it change "your" marriage?

Mother

3:01 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Debbie,
Most of us are unaware of what happened in Massachusetts. Could you help us to understand what is most upsetting? You seem to be a person of conviction because you have experienced something that we have not and some of us would be interested in hearing what you experienced. Thanks!

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Angela Norby

6:50 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

About.com
This is a site that will explain the ballot, if there are any questions.

Reading the explanation on the amendment change it states that if you leave the vote blank it will be counted as a NO vote.

Meaning you agree for the amendment change.

If you vote YES, the amendment remains between a man and woman.

Voting is important.

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Emily B

11:10 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

Angela, I'm not sure you are explaining this correctly. No one is voting to change the amendment. We vote on the amendment as written. That said, we are voting to change the CONSTITUTION.

If you leave it blank, it will be counted as a NO vote stating you DO NOT wish to have the Constitution changed to say that marriage is defined as one man and one woman. This is already the law, but supporters want to make it part of our Constitution. So, if enough people vote no or leave it blank, and the amendment fails, life stays EXACTLY how it is today. Not a single thing changes. Gay marriage will not be legal. Gay and lesbian couples will gain nothing in terms of benefits.

Heyitsme

8:10 pm on Thursday, September 13, 2012

824 people polled...5.3 plus million live in Minnesota. Not a huge cross section of the public.

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Luke

10:07 am on Friday, September 14, 2012

At this stage in the election, this poll is the best we'll get. Minnesota, while getting closer and closer to being a swing state, is not considered "in play" this election and so pollsters look elsewhere. We will get better polls later, but for now 824 people weighted to match the voting demographics allows an accurate poll.

The small sample does result in a high range of error, but little can be done about that. If you want better polls, answer your phone more. Lack of people answering the phone is the number one problem with polling.

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STW

12:36 pm on Friday, September 14, 2012

I never give a answer to a a pollster. If you want to know the results, check it on the day after the election. Anything before, doesn't help.

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Luke

4:59 pm on Friday, September 14, 2012

I don't what side you're on for this issue, but both want and need polling data. It is of vital importance in deciding what to focus on, where to have ads and countless other things.

For example, during a presidential election, candidates don't pick speeches, events and messages at random. They're specifically tailored to win necessary states. The reason we don't see much action in Minnesota is because we don't poll as a swing state. Maybe you don't care about answering the polls, but for a second believe they aren't important.

Gramps Pupany

10:41 am on Wednesday, September 19, 2012

It's more GOP hate-mongering. The corruption starts at Romney & Ryan with lies about who they will serve and who they won't. Lies of "omission", such as hidden budget cuts, are equal to lies of "commission", like telling the rich one thing and the rest of America another.

They're up to his necks in The Lying Game. What they say is all part of the larger GOP strategy. Believe me, Ryan "takes direction" in order to "stay on" the Republican message. He must "sing the GOP song" to be a GOP candidate.

All across the nation, millionaires are backing these liars. They want full control in order to create the final divide between rich and poor. "Us and them".

Their misjudgment? A lot of that 47% they despise is part of working America; students working their way through college, single moms restarting their lives with their first job since high school and truly poor mothers, working while the kids are at school, just to buy fuel oil for this winter and food for the day.

These are proud Americans. Romney has just stolen their pride, their will power and more...their dignity.

Men like Romney, Ryan and Republican candidates for Congress have no place in the seats of government (at any level) making decisions for "all Americans". They only have experience with the "jet set" and their "country club" members. That's okay, if you're running for Prom Queen, but the responsibilities here are far reaching and their vision does not include all Americans, as we've just found out.

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Jim

3:10 pm on Friday, September 21, 2012

Each hateful comment is a stab in the heart of other human beings. How many gays does God have to make before we figure out that love is love.

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Just Curious

8:19 am on Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Speaking of hateful is it appropriate the vote "no" team is damaging property and signs of those who are expressing their right to have an opinion? The real intimidation in this election is definetelly from the left.....

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Luke

8:28 am on Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Seeing that my "Vote No" sign has been stolen twice now along with every other sign on the block and that MN United organizers have confirmed that such vandalism is very common this year, I don't think we should be pointing fingers. I have no idea of what property damage you're speaking of. Neither campaign is directing the damaging of signs and both condemn it.

As for intimidation, I volunteer regularly with MN United. I don't intimidate voters, I remain polite at all times and I help everyone understand the amendment, even if it means they will vote yes. But I have received a death threat over the phone, am often told I will burn in hell and had people attempt to physically intimidate me at the State Fair. Its hard to keep calling after someone tells you their going to come and kill me and my family, but it only gives me another reason to make sure this fails. The side who wants me dead cannot be the right side.

MJ

9:50 am on Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Our "Vote No" yard sign was pulled up over night, but they were unsuccessful at actually taking it. Unfortunately, I am not surprised, but it still saddens me that as Americans we cannot express our views without harassment.

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Michele

10:00 am on Tuesday, September 25, 2012

I am under the impression that removing election signs from lawns is a felony; am I incorrect in this? In removing a sign, the vandal is attempting that individual's right to free expression and betrays a contempt for our Constitution.

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Just Curious

8:15 pm on Tuesday, September 25, 2012

So we all agree that we are free to express our opinions. Free from intimidation tactics .

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Jmc

6:30 pm on Sunday, October 14, 2012

Debbie I think you have it all wrong I was raised by two catholic parents and was raised to understand that you got married because you were in love and want to spend your lives together! So I also feel everyone has a right to be married and be happy! No one has a right to judge anyone for who they love !

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